By Norman J. Ashford at al.
Аэропорт инжиниринг: планирование, проектирование и развитие аэропортов 21-го века. Издание 4-е.
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Extra resources for Airport Engineering. Planning Design and Development of 21st Century Airports (4th edition)
The FAA’s longer term forecasts rely on anticipated aircraft deliveries and retirements as well as historic relationships between economic activity and capacity deployed. Given the volatile nature of many of the factors influencing longer term ASM forecasts, a simpler approach that could be adopted is dividing the RPMs by load factor, which may improve the long-run accuracy of the ASM. Regional Demand Level A step down from the national to the regional level may be required in certain cases, but not always.
Establishing a correlation between national and regional demand forecast essentially determines the airport region’s share of the entire national demand. This is particularly necessary when the region’s share is not stable, for example, if it is undergoing significant growth more than other regions that will result in higher share in the future than presently. Base-year share of regional passenger demand to national is determined based on expected level and nature of the economic growth, particularly those aspects related to aviation and air travel (2).
Therefore, in conducting air travel demand forecast for a particular airport, this aspect has to be carefully considered. Implementation of competing (or supplementing) ground transport modes will largely depend on such considerations as the geographic region’s ground transport network, technological advancement in ground modes, financial and economic feasibility of all travel modes, future availability of options and their costs of energy, convenience and acceptability by the traveling public, and the environmental and social impacts of the modes.